This summary is really awesome. I have not been taught of such summarized series before. Thanks trading strategy guide. You are the best. Been a semi-student of Elliott Wave for long time but haven't used it in my style of scalps.
But this is one of clearest, most helpful, summaries I've seen. Most plays based on sudden news driven forces don't act within the rules since emotions drive them to extremes. You want a nice steady guy. Also have to check that harmonic link for a refresher. We want to share with you some important information about Trading Strategy Guides as we move forward to our goal to help 1,, Traders find a strategy that suites them best.
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One from the previous break of the channel and the second on the current breakout of this channel that was plotted for you. It is as simple as that! Let us know if you have any questions. Check this out". Please log in again. The login page will open in a new tab.
After logging in you can close it and return to this page. This is why we call it an Elliott Wave Strategy today. See below: Table of Contents hide. Author at Trading Strategy Guides Website. Al Noman Mahib says:. June 1, at am. TradingStrategyGuides says:.
June 1, at pm. Jagdish Pahuja says:. May 10, at pm. Adebayo Daniel says:. January 22, at am. February 12, at am. Roozbeh says:. It is ideal if you spend a lot of time using the Elliott wave count indicator on a demo trading platform in order to get a fair sense of idea of using this automated indicator.
Because Elliott waves work with Fibonacci retracement levels, another major drawback is that the indicator does not show you the Fibonacci levels of extensions and retracements.
Therefore, this leaves a lot of legwork to be done if you really want to be thorough. However, considering the fact that you are using this indicator means it is quite likely that you are not fully confident in trading with Elliott waves.
As a result, this indicator needs to be used with caution and not to be blindly trusted. It is ideal that you initially start off with your existing trading system and look for confluence with the Elliott wave turning points.
Another alternative is to make use of the Fibonacci tool and plot the retracement and extension levels to validate the wave counts yourself. There is often a debate within Elliott wave traders about the starting point of the wave count.
This is something that can also be seen in the Elliott wave count indicator. The question is from how far back does the indicator start to count the waves?
A mismatch or a miscalculated wave count from in between could lead to potentially losing traders. Therefore, traders should basically weigh the pros and cons of using the Elliott wave count indicator for the MT4 platform. Having cited the risks of using the Elliott wave count indicator you should focus on this indicator more as a handy tool that will help get you started with being familiar about Elliott wave based trading.
Trading based on Elliott waves has always caught the fancy of many traders at some point. However, using this method is not a fool-proof way of trading. Meaning that you will hit losses when trading with Elliott waves. It is ideal if you combine the Elliott wave count indicator with other concepts such as support and resistance.
Combining these two elements can create better chances at taking trading opportunities compared to just trading with the Elliott wave count indicator in isolation. Trading with just one particular concept or not using the confluence of other methods can lead to an incomplete market structure.
This will make your trades prone to wide swings or your stops being abnormally hit. The Elliott wave is not an exception either. Therefore, traders should not ignore the other basic concepts such as risk management while trying to learn how to trade with the Elliott waves or the Elliott wave count indicator. My trading career started in First connect the ends of waves two and four. If waves one and three are normal, the upper parallel most accurately forecasts the end of wave five when drawn touching the peak of wave three, as in Figure If wave three is abnormally strong, almost vertical, then a parallel drawn from its top may be too high.
Experience has shown that a parallel to the baseline that touches the top of wave one is then more useful, as in our depiction of gold bullion from August to March see Figure In some cases, it may be useful to draw both potential upper boundary lines to alert you to be especially attentive to the wave count and volume characteristics at those levels and then take appropriate action as the wave count warrants.
Always remember that all degrees of trend are operating at the same time. Sometimes, for instance, a fifth wave of Intermediate degree within a fifth wave of Primary degree will end when it reaches the upper channel lines at both degrees simultaneously. Or sometimes a throw-over at Supercycle degree will terminate precisely when prices reach the upper line of the channel at Cycle degree. Zigzag corrections often form channels with four touch points. One line connects the starting point of wave A and then end of wave B; the other line touches the end of wave A and end of wave C.
Once the former line is established, a parallel line drawn from the end of wave A is an excellent tool for recognizing the exact end of the entire correction. Within a parallel channel or the converging lines of a diagonal, if a fifth wave approaches its upper trendline on declining volume, it is an indication that the end of the wave will meet or fall short of it. If volume is heavy as the fifth wave approaches its upper trendline, it indicates a possible penetration of the upper line, which Elliott called a "throw-over.
A throw-over is confirmed by an immediate reversal back below the line. A throw-over can also occur, with the same characteristics, in a declining market. Elliott correctly warned that a throw-over at large degree causes difficulty in identifying the waves of smaller degree during the throw-over, as smaller degree channels are sometimes penetrated on the upside during the final fifth wave.
Figures , and show real-life examples of throw-overs. Elliott contended that the necessity of channeling on semilog scale indicated the presence of inflation. To date, no student of the Wave Principle has questioned this assumption, which is demonstrably incorrect. Some of the differences apparent to Elliott may have been due to differences in the degree of waves that he was plotting, since the larger the degree, the more necessary a semilog scale usually becomes. On the other hand, the virtually perfect channels that were formed by the market on semilog scale see Figure and the market on arithmetic scale see Figure indicate that waves of the same degree will form the correct Elliott trend channel only when plotted selectively on the appropriate scale.
On arithmetic scale, the s bull market accelerates beyond the upper boundary, while on semilog scale the s bull market falls far short of the upper boundary. This monetary background convinces us that inflation is not the reason behind the necessity for use of semilog scale.
In fact, aside from this difference in channeling, these two waves of Cycle dimension are surprisingly similar: they create nearly the same multiples in price six times and five times respectively , they both contain extended fifth waves, and the peak of the third wave is the same percentage gain above the bottom in each case.
The essential difference between the two bull markets is the shape and time length of each individual subwave. At most, we can state that the necessity for semilog scale indicates a wave that is in the process of acceleration, for whatever mass psychological reasons.
Given a single price objective and a specific length of time allotted, anyone can draw a satisfactory hypothetical Elliott wave channel from the same point of origin on both arithmetic and semilog scale by adjusting the slope of the 75 waves to fit. Thus, the question of whether to expect a parallel channel on arithmetic or semilog scale is still unresolved as far as developing a tenet on the subject.
If the price development at any point does not fall neatly within two parallel lines on the scale you are using, switch to the other scale in order to observe the channel in correct perspective. To stay on top of all developments, you should always use both. Elliott used volume as a tool for verifying wave counts and in projecting extensions. He recognized that in a bull market, volume has a natural tendency to expand and contract with the speed of price change. Late in a corrective phase, a decline in volume often indicates a decline in selling pressure.
A low point in volume often coincides with a turning point in the market. In a normal fifth wave below Primary degree, volume tends to be less than in the third wave. If volume in an advancing fifth wave of less than Primary degree is equal to or greater than that in the third wave, an extension of the fifth is in force. While this outcome is often to be expected anyway if the first and third waves are about equal in length, it is an excellent warning of those rare times when both a third and a fifth wave are extended.
At Primary degree and greater, volume tends to be higher in an advancing fifth wave merely because of the natural long term growth in the number of participants in bull markets. Elliott noted, in fact, that volume at the terminal point of a bull market above Primary degree tends to run at an all-time high. Finally, as discussed earlier, volume often spikes briefly at the throw-over point of a parallel trend channel line or the resistance line of a diagonal.
Upon occasion, such a point can occur simultaneously, as when a diagonal fifth wave terminates right at the upper parallel of the channel containing the price action of one larger degree.
In addition to these few valuable observations, we have expanded upon the importance of volume in various sections of this book. To the extent that volume guides wave counting or expectations, it is most significant. Elliott once said that volume independently follows the patterns of the Wave Principle, a claim for which the authors find no convincing evidence.
The overall appearance of a wave must conform to the appropriate illustration. Although any five-wave sequence can be forced into a three-wave count by labeling the first three subdivisions as a single wave A, as shown in Figure , it is incorrect to do so. Elliott analysis would lose its anchor if such contortions were allowed. If wave four terminates well above the top of wave one, a five-wave sequence must be classified as an impulse.
Since wave A in this hypothetical case is composed of three waves, wave B would be expected to drop to about the start of wave A, as in a flat correction, which it clearly does not.
While the internal count of a wave is a guide to its classification, the right overall shape is, in turn, often a guide to its correct internal count. The "right look" of a wave is dictated by all the considerations we have outlined so far in the first two chapters. Elliott cautioned that "the right look" may not be evident at all degrees of trend simultaneously.
The solution is to focus on the degrees that are clearest. If the hourly chart is confusing, step back and look at the daily or weekly chart. Conversely, if 77 the weekly chart offers too many possibilities, concentrate on the shorter term movements until the bigger picture clarifies. Generally speaking, you need short term charts to analyze subdivisions in fast moving markets and long term charts for slowly moving markets. The idea of wave personality is a substantial expansion of the Wave Principle.
It has the advantage of bringing human behavior more personally into the equation. The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.
As the Wave Principle indicates, market history repeats but not exactly. Every wave has siblings same-directional waves of the same degree within a larger wave and cousins samedegree and same-numbered waves within different larger waves but no wave has a twin. Related waves — particularly cousins — have similar market and social characteristics. The personality of each wave type is manifest whether the wave is of Grand Supercycle degree or Subminuette.
As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that a knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable.
Recognizing the character of a single wave can often allow you to interpret correctly the complexities of the larger pattern. The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market picture, as illustrated in Figures and These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in.
Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it.
The other fifty percent of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in , from downside failures, as in , or from extreme compression, as in both and From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced. This is especially true of call option purchases, as premiums sink drastically in the environment of 79 fear during second waves. At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay.
Second waves often end on very low volume and volatility, indicating a drying up of selling pressure. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable.
Increasingly favorable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of course, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such points invariably produce breakouts, "continuation" gaps, volume expansions, exceptional breadth, major Dow Theory trend confirmations and runaway price movement, creating large hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly gains in the market, depending on the degree of the wave.
Virtually all stocks participate in third waves. Besides the personality of B waves, that of third waves produces the most valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds. More often than not they trend sideways, building the base for the final fifth wave move. Lagging stocks build their tops and begin declining during this wave, since only the strength of a third wave was able to generate any motion in them in the first place.
This initial deterioration in the market sets the stage for non-confirmations and subtle signs of weakness during the fifth wave.
They usually display a slower maximum speed of price change as well, although if a fifth wave is an extension, speed of price change in the third of the fifth can exceed that of the third wave. Similarly, while it is common for volume to increase through successive impulse waves at Cycle degree or larger, it usually happens in a fifth wave below Primary degree only if the fifth wave extends. Otherwise, look for lesser volume as a rule in a fifth wave as opposed to the third.
Market dabblers sometimes call for "blowoffs" at the end of long trends, but the stock market has no history of reaching maximum acceleration at a peak. Even if a fifth wave extends, the fifth of the fifth will lack the dynamism that preceded it. During advancing fifth waves, optimism runs extremely high despite a narrowing of breadth.
Nevertheless, market action does improve relative to prior corrective wave rallies. For example, the year-end rally in was unexciting in the Dow, but it was nevertheless a motive wave as opposed to the preceding corrective wave advances in April, July and September, which, by contrast, had even less influence on the secondary indexes and the cumulative advance-decline line. As a monument to the optimism that fifth waves can produce, the advisory services polled two weeks after the conclusion of that rally turned in the lowest percentage of "bears," 4.
The public surges to the buy side despite the first really technically damaging cracks in individual stock patterns. The A wave sets the tone for the B wave to follow. A five-wave A indicates a zigzag for wave B, while a three-wave A indicates a flat or triangle. They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" see Dow Theory discussion in Chapter 7 by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C.
X waves and D waves in expanding triangles, both of which are corrective wave advances, have the same characteristics. Several examples will suffice to illustrate the point. Robert Rhea describes the emotional climate well in his opus, The Story of the Averages :. Cumulative breadth had already peaked along with the top of the third wave in Emotionalism had gripped the public and "cheapies" were skyrocketing in the speculative fever, unlike the orderly and usually fundamentally justifiable participation of the secondaries within first and third waves.
The Dow Industrials struggled unconvincingly upward throughout the advance and finally refused to confirm the phenomenal new highs in the secondary indexes. Airlines and truckers were sluggish. Only the coal-carrying rails were participating as part of the energy play. Thus, breadth within the index was conspicuously lacking, confirming again that good breadth is generally a property of impulse waves, not corrections.
As a general observation, B waves of Intermediate degree and lower usually show a diminution of volume, while B waves of Primary degree and greater can display volume heavier than that which accompanied the preceding bull market, usually indicating wide public participation. They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. It is during these declines that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over.
C waves are persistent and broad. Advancing C waves within upward corrections in larger bear markets are just as dynamic and can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing, especially since they unfold in five waves. The October rally see Figure , for instance, was a C wave in an inverted expanded flat correction. This is true probably because D waves in non-expanding triangles are hybrids, part corrective, yet having some characteristics of first waves since they follow C waves and are not fully retraced.
D waves, being advances within corrective waves, are as phony as B waves. The "one-decision" complacency that characterized the attitude of the average institutional fund manager at the time is well documented. The area of participation again was narrow, this time the "nifty fifty" growth and glamour issues. Breadth, as well as the Transportation Average, topped early, in , and refused to confirm the extremely high multiples bestowed upon the favorite fifty. Washington was inflating at full steam to sustain the illusory prosperity during the entire advance in preparation for the presidential election.
They almost always are accompanied by strongly supportive news. That, in conjunction with the tendency of E waves to stage a false breakdown through the triangle boundary line, intensifies the bearish conviction of market participants at precisely the time that they should be preparing for a substantial move in the opposite direction.
Thus, E waves, being ending waves, are attended by a psychology as emotional as that of fifth waves. Because the tendencies discussed here are not inevitable, they are stated not as rules, but as guidelines. Their lack of inevitability nevertheless detracts little from their utility. For example, take a look at Figure , an hourly chart of the most recent market action, the first four Minor waves in the DJIA rally off the March 1, low.
The waves are textbook Elliott from beginning to end, from the length of waves to the volume pattern not shown to the trend channels to the guideline of equality to the retracement by the "a" wave following the extension to the expected low for the fourth wave to the perfect internal counts to alternation to the Fibonacci time sequences to the Fibonacci ratio relationships embodied within. Its only atypical aspect is the large size of wave 4.
It might be worth noting that would be a reasonable target in that it would mark a. There are exceptions to guidelines, but without those, market analysis would be a science of exactitude, not one of probability. Nevertheless, with a thorough knowledge of the guidelines of wave structure, you can be quite confident of your wave count.
In effect, you can use the market action to confirm the wave count as well as use the wave count to predict market action. Notice also that Elliott wave guidelines cover most aspects of traditional technical analysis, such as market momentum and investor sentiment.
To that end, using such tools is by all means encouraged. From a theoretical standpoint, we must be careful not to confuse Elliott waves with their measures, which are as a thermometer is to heat. A thermometer is not designed to gauge rapid short-term fluctuations in air temperature and neither is an index of 30 stocks constructed so as to be able to record every short-term fluctuation in social mood. While we fully believe that the listed rules govern Elliott waves as a collective mental phenomenon, recordings of actions that Elliott waves induce — such as buying and selling certain lists of stocks — may not perfectly reflect those waves.
Therefore recordings of such actions could deviate from a perfect expression of the rules simply because of the imperfection of the chosen gauge. Below is a summary of the rules and known guidelines excepting Fibonacci relationships for the five main wave patterns, variations and combinations.
See Figure With a knowledge of the tools in Chapters 1 and 2, any dedicated student can perform expert Elliott wave analysis. Those who neglect to study the subject thoroughly or apply the tools rigorously give up before really trying. The best learning procedure is to keep an hourly chart and try to fit all the wiggles into Elliott wave patterns while keeping an open mind for all the possibilities.
Slowly the scales should drop from your eyes, and you will be continually amazed at what you see. It is important to remember that while investment tactics always must go with the most valid wave count, knowledge of alternative interpretations can be extremely helpful in adjusting to unexpected events, putting them immediately into perspective, and adapting to the changing market framework.
The rigid rules of wave formation are of great value in narrowing the infinite possibilities to a relatively small list, while flexibility within the patterns eliminates cries that whatever the market is doing now is "impossible. This advice is a capsule summary of what you need to know to be successful with Elliott. The best approach is deductive reasoning. By knowing what Elliott rules will not allow, you can deduce that whatever remains is the proper perspective, no matter how improbable it may seem otherwise.
By applying all the rules of extensions, alternation, overlapping, channeling, volume and the rest, you have a much more formidable arsenal than you might imagine at first glance. Unfortunately for many, the approach requires thought and work and rarely provides a mechanical signal. We sincerely urge you to give it a try. As an example of such deductive reasoning, turn back to Figure and cover up the price action from November 17, forward.
Without the wave labels and boundary lines, the market would appear as formless. But with the Wave Principle as a guide, the meaning of the structures becomes clear. Now ask yourself, how would you go about predicting the next movement? Christopher Morley once said, "Dancing is a wonderful training for girls.
It is the first way they learn to guess what a man is going to do before he does it. After you have acquired an Elliott "touch," it will be forever with you, just as a child who learns to ride a bicycle never forgets.
Thereafter, catching a turn becomes a fairly common experience and not really too difficult. Most important, the Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress. Living in harmony with those trends can make the difference between success and failure in financial affairs.
The practical goal of any analytical method is to identify market lows suitable for buying or covering shorts and market highs suitable for selling or selling short. When developing a system of trading or investing, you should adopt certain patterns of thought that will help you remain both flexible and decisive, both defensive and aggressive, depending upon the demands of the situation. The Elliott Wave Principle is not such a system, but is unparalleled as a basis for creating one.
Despite the fact that many analysts do not treat it as such, the Wave Principle is by all means an objective study, or as Collins put it, "a disciplined form of technical analysis. If you do not believe what you see, you are likely to read into your analysis what you think should be there for some other reason. At this point, your count becomes subjective and worthless. How can you remain objective in a world of uncertainty? It is not difficult once you understand the proper goal of your analysis.
Without Elliott, there appear to be an infinite number of possibilities for market action. What the Wave Principle provides is a means of first limiting the possibilities and then ordering the relative probabilities of possible future market paths. Among those, the best interpretation, sometimes called the "preferred count," is the one that satisfies the largest number of guidelines.
Other interpretations are ordered accordingly. As a result, competent analysts applying the rules and guidelines of the Wave Principle objectively should usually agree on both the list of possibilities and the order of probabilities for various possible outcomes at any particular time. That order can usually be stated with certainty.
Do not assume, however, that certainty about the order of probabilities is the same as certainty about one specific outcome. Under only the rarest of circumstances do you ever know exactly what the market is going to do. You must understand and accept that even an approach that can identify high odds for a fairly specific event must be wrong some of the time.
You can prepare yourself psychologically for such outcomes through the continual updating of the second best interpretation , sometimes called the "alternate count. In the event that the market violates the expected scenario, the alternate count puts the unexpected market action into perspective and immediately becomes your new preferred count. Always invest with the preferred wave count. Not infrequently, the two or even three best counts comfortably dictate the same investment stance.
Sometimes being continuously sensitive to alternatives can allow you to make money even when your preferred count is in error. For instance, after a minor low that you erroneously consider of major importance, you may recognize at a higher level that the market is vulnerable again to new lows. This recognition occurs after a clear-cut three-wave rally follows the minor low rather than the necessary five, since a three -wave rally is the sign of an upward correction.
Thus, what happens after the turning point often helps confirm or refute the assumed status of the low or high, well in advance of danger. Even if the market allows no such graceful change of opinion, the Wave Principle still offers exceptional value. Most other approaches to market analysis, whether fundamental, technical or cyclical, have no good way of forcing a reversal of opinion or position if you are wrong.
The Wave Principle, in contrast, provides a built-in objective method for placing a stop. If the market changes direction, the analyst has caught the turn.
If the market moves beyond what the apparently completed pattern allows, the conclusion is wrong, and any funds at risk can be reclaimed immediately. Of course, there are often times when, despite a rigorous analysis, there is no clearly preferred interpretation. At such times, you must wait until the count resolves itself. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.
The ability to identify such junctures is remarkable enough, but the Wave Principle is the only method of analysis that also provides guidelines for forecasting. Many of these guidelines are specific and can occasionally yield stunningly precise results.
If indeed markets are patterned, and if those patterns have a recognizable geometry, then regardless of the variations allowed, certain price and time relationships are likely to recur. In fact, experience shows that they do. It is our practice to try to determine in advance where the next move will likely take the market.
This way, you are alerted quickly when something is wrong and can shift your interpretation to a more appropriate one if the market does not do what you expect. The second advantage of choosing a target well in advance is that it prepares you psychologically for buying when others are selling out in despair, and selling when others are buying confidently in a euphoric environment.
No matter what your convictions, it pays never to take your eyes off what is happening in the wave structure in real time. Ultimately, the market is the message, and a change in behavior can dictate a change in outlook.
All one really needs to know at the time is whether to be long, short or out, a decision that can sometimes be made with a swift glance at a chart and other times only after painstaking work.
Despite all your knowledge and skill, however, absolutely nothing can prepare you fully for the ordeal of risking your own money in the market. Once you have conquered the essential task of applying a method expertly, you have done little more than gather the tools for the job.
When you act on that method, you encounter the real work: battling your own emotions. This is why analysis and making money are two different skills. There is no way to understand that battle off the field. Trending Stock: With on-demand and live streaming services gaining popularity and recent lockdowns adding to the viewership, Roku Inc.
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Since the pandemic led to lockdown, millions of people around the world shifted to the virtual mode of communication for personal and business work. For that Zoom provided the ultimate solution. The below chart shows the bullish journey of Zoom since the pandemic in March The company is well-positioned for strong growth in the coming years.
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